1 AN ASSESSMENT OF CO-OPERATIVE SOCIETIES AND HOUSING SUPPLY IN LAGOS STATE. By OYALOWO, Basirat Ashabi. (089053010) B.Sc (Estate Management); M.A (Housing Policy and Management) A thesis in the Department of Estate Management submitted to the School of Postgraduate Studies in fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D) in Estate Management of the University of Lagos, Nigeria. JANUARY, 2018 2 CERTIFICATION This is to certify that the thesis: An Assessment of Co-operative Societies and Housing Supply in Lagos State. Submitted to the School of Postgraduate Studies University of Lagos For the award of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D) Is a record of original research carried out By Oyalowo, Basirat Ashabi. In the Department of Estate Management ............................................. ................................. ..................................... Author’s Name Signature/Date Email ............................................. ................................. ..................................... 1st Supervisor’s Name Signature/Date Email ............................................. ................................. ..................................... 2nd Supervisor’s Name Signature/Date Email ............................................. ................................. ..................................... 1st Internal Examiner Signature/Date Email ............................................. ................................. ..................................... 2nd Internal Examiner Signature/Date Email ............................................. ................................. ..................................... External Examiner Signature/Date Email ............................................. ................................. ..................................... SPGS Representative Signature/Date Email 3 SIGNING OFF OF OWNERSHIP RIGHT OF THESIS I hereby agree to give the University of Lagos through the University of Lagos Library, a non- exclusive, worldwide right to reproduce and distribute my thesis and abstract (hereinafter ‘‘the work’’) in whole or in part, by any and all media of distribution, in its present form or style or in any form or style as it may be translated for the purpose of future preservation and accessibility provided that such translation does not change its elsewhere. By the grant of non-exclusive rights to University of Lagos through the Library under this agreement, I understand that the rights of the University of Lagos are royalty free and that I am free to publish the Work in its present version or future versions elsewhere. Warranties I further agree as follows: i. That I am the author of the work and I hereby give the University of Lagos the right to make available the Work in the way described above after a three (3) year period of the award of my doctorate degree in compliance with the regulation established by the University of Lagos Senate. ii. That the Work does not contain confidential information which should not be divulged to any third party without written consent. iii. That I have exercised reasonable care to ensure that the Work is original and it does not to the best of my knowledge breach any Nigerian law or infringe any third party’s copyright or other Intellectual Property Right. iv. That to the extent that the Work contains material for which I do not hold copyright, I represent that I have obtained the unrestricted permission of the copyright holder to grant this license to the University of Lagos Library and that such third party material is clearly identified and acknowledge in the Work. v. In the event of a subsequent dispute over the copyrights to materials contained in the Work, I agree to indemnify and hold harmless the University of Lagos and all its officers, employees and agents for any uses of the material authorized by this agreement. vi. That the University of Lagos has no obligation whatsoever to take legal action on my behalf as the Depositor, in the event of breach of intellectual property rights, or any other right, in the material deposited. ............................................. ................................. ..................................... Author’s Name Signature/Date Email ............................................. ................................. ..................................... 1st Supervisor’s Name Signature/Date Email ............................................. ................................. ..................................... 2nd Supervisor’s Name Signature/Date Email 4 DECLARATION AN ASSESSMENT OF CO-OPERATIVE SOCIETIES AND HOUSING SUPPLY IN LAGOS STATE I declare that this thesis represents my original work in the Department of Estate Management, University of Lagos. It has not been accepted for any previous application for a higher degree or previously published by any other person. I authorise the University of Lagos to lend it to other institutions or individuals for the purpose of scholarly research. Oyalowo, Basirat Ashabi. December, 2017 5 DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to Almighty God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful. All Praises, Worship and Adoration are due to HIM ALONE, the King of the Worlds. Also, to my sister, Mrs Kudirat Adeola Agboola, of cherished memory, who was the first to seek a Ph.D. but was not destined to accomplish it. May God continue to rest you in Al-Jannah Firdaus (Amin). 6 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, this thesis would never have been completed without the support, encouragement and tireless push of my first supervisor, Professor T.G. Nubi, who at different stages took on the role of mentor, father, brother, friend and task master to ensure the completion of this work. I pray that our collective vision for housing development in this Nation be realized during our lifetimes. I also appreciate the support and encouragement of my second supervisor, Dr A.C. Otegbulu (Associate Professor) whose sustained interest, constructive criticisms and advice has contributed to shaping this work. My heartfelt gratitude to My Parents, Major M.A Odunmbaku (Rtd.) and Alhaja M.O. Odunmbaku, who nurtured me with an invaluable thirst for knowledge, both spiritual and material: May your days remain long to enjoy the best that life has to offer (Amin). I also want to thank Prof M.M. Omirin, the current Head of Department, Estate Management, who has remained a pillar of support for me from the inception of my studies to the end. May God reward you all in manifolds (Amen).Special thanks to the Estate Management students (Class of 2017/2018) who made significant contribution during the field work stage. This appreciation also extends to the co-operative leaders that took part in the focus group discussion and all those who took time to properly fill out the questionnaires. To the entire staff of Kadiri Associates, I owe a debt of gratitude for providing conducive and comfortable office space at the various times I needed solitude to write up the thesis. I specially thank my uncle, Tpl (Alhaji) Waheed Kadiri, a scholar, seasoned and renowned town planner for always being concerned about my progress in life and for being the first person to say to me “Go and get a PhD!’. On this note too, I thank my sisters: Mrs Sherifat Olaniyan and Dr Adeoti Okaga, for helping me not to lose focus in the early days of the PhD. My siblings Mrs Modinat Abiona, Mrs Bunmi Gbogboade, my niece,Mrs Abimbola Thomas and Ruqoyah Odunmbaku; my sister in law,my brothers Mr Quasim Odunmbaku and Mr Akeem Odunmbaku, I say thank you for your moral support! 7 I appreciate also, Mrs Toyin Adeniyi for providing crucial secretarial support and Dr Julius Faremi for his readiness to offer guidance during the last stages of this work, and also every member of staff of the Department of Estate Management both teaching and non-teaching (especially Mr John and Mrs Joy Avona). My appreciation goes to very senior colleagues that have monitored the progress of this work: Professor M.M Omirin, Dr G.K Babawale, and of course, Dr H. Koleoso, my tireless Postgraduate Co-ordinator. To my sisters in the Faculty: Dr Taibat Lawanson (Associate Professor) and Dr Ini John; I wish to acknowledge your sustained interest and encouragement. Also, my colleagues, Esther Thontteh, Afees Alabi, Funlola Famuyiwa, Uyi Osagie, Dr M.I Anyakora, OBA Idowu, and my own office mate and ‘BFF’ Yetunde Ohiro, we are alltogether! I also appreciate all my students, past and present, who have contributed in no small way to the actualization of this work, especially Idris Tella (OOU, Ibogun); Kayode, Oreoluwa, Isreal, Eniola, Afolabi, John Oloba, Badejo and Elizabeth all of Estate Management Department, UNILAG. Finally, I cherish my children for being there. In the completion of this thesis, they have made several sacrifices and have had to cope with frequent absences, short tempers and hurriedly cooked meals! Thank you for supporting mummy, may you all never lack! Then to my husband, Tpl Dare J. Oyalowo for his support spiritually and financially, for providing the challenge to carry out this study. I say thank you ! To all these sweet people and others within and outside the University of Lagos community, I say thanks and to God be the Glory! 8 Title i Certification ii Author’s Statement iii Declaration iv Dedication v Acknowledgement vi Table of Contents vii List of Tables xii List of Figures xiv List of Abbreviations xv Abstract xvii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background to the Study 1 1.2 Statement of the Research Problem 5 1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study 7 1.4 Research Questions 8 1.5 Research Hypothesis 9 1.6 Significance of the Study 10 1.7 Scope of the Study 11 1.8 Operational Definition of Terms 12 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 14 2.1 Introduction 14 2.2 Concepts in Housing Supply 14 2.2.1 The Housing Supply Value Chain 14 2.2.2 Housing Affordability as a concept 17 2.2.3 The Concept of Housing Supply in an imperfect market 19 2.2.4 Determinants of Housing Supply Decisions 22 2.2.5 Housing Supply Elasticity, Housing Suppliers and Affordability 25 2.3 A Typology of Housing Suppliers in Nigeria 28 2.3.1 Government Activities in Housing Supply in Nigeria 30 2.3.2 Private Sector Provision of Housing in Nigeria 33 TABLE OF CONTENTS 9 2.3.3 Housing Supply in Nigeria 37 2.3.4 A Review of the Literature on Constraints to Housing Supply 38 2.3.5 A Conclusive Note on the Review of Housing Supply Constraints 53 2.4 Definitions and Conceptualizations of Co-operative Societies 55 2.4.1 The Study of Co-operative Societies as Business and Social Organizations 57 2.4.2 Emergence of Co-operative Societies in Nigeria 59 2.5 Co-operative Societies and Housing Supply 60 2.5.1 An Historical Account of the Origin of Co-operative Housing 62 2.5.2 Overview of Co-operative Housing Developments around the World 66 2.5.3 Summary: Principles and Benefits of Co-operative Housing 80 2.5.4 Addressing Housing Market Peculiarities through Co-operative Societies: The experience in Developed Countries 83 2.5.5 General Challenges Facing the Global Co-operative Housing Sector 97 2.6 A Review of Academic Papers on Housing Supply through Co-operative Societies in Nigeria 99 2.6.1 The Structure of Co-operative Societies in Lagos State 107 2.6.2 Regulatory Guidance for Co-operative Societies’ Participation in Housing Supply in Lagos State 108 2.6.3 Selected Co-operative Housing Estates in Lagos State 110 2.7 Theoretical Framework 118 2.7.1 Theories about the Structure of Firms and Application to Co-operative Societies 118 2.8 Conceptual Framework 132 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction 136 3.2 Research Paradigm 136 3.3 Research Design 137 3.4 The Quantitative Phase 140 3.4.1 Study Population 142 3.4.2 Sampling Units 142 3.4.3 Sample Size 143 10 3.4.4 Sample Size Distribution and Survey Response Rate 144 3.4.5 Sampling Strategy and Technique 144 3.4.6 Data Collection Instrument and Measurement of Variables 145 3.4.7 Validity and Reliability of Research Instruments 147 3.4.8 Pilot Study 148 3.5 The Qualitative Phase 149 3.5.1 Data Collection Strategy 149 3.5.2 Sampling Unit, Strategy and Participant Selection 150 3.5.3 Moderation 151 3.5.4 Recording and Note-taking 151 3.5.5 Data Collection Instrument 151 3.5.6 Validity and Reliability Tests of Qualitative Data: Computer Aided Qualitative Data Analysis System 152 3.5.7 Qualitative Data Analysis 153 CHAPTER FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSIONS 157 4.1 Introduction 157 4.2 Response Rates 157 4.3 Descriptive Statistics 158 4.4 Analysis of Research Objectives and Test of Hypothesis 162 4.4.1 Analysis of Research Objective 1 162 4.4.1.1 Test of hypothesis for Research Objective 1 165 4.4.2 Analysis of Research Objective 2 170 4.4.2.1 Analysis of Qualitative Data for Research Objective 2 173 4.4.3 Analysis of Research Objective 3 176 4.4.3.1 Test of Hypothesis for Research Objective 3a 176 4.4.3.2 Test of Hypothesis for Research objective 3b 177 4.4.3.3 Test of Hypothesis for Research Objective 3c 179 4.4.3.4 Test of Hypothesis for Research Objective 3d 181 4.4.4 Analysis of Research Objective 4 184 4.4.5 Discussion of Findings 188 205 11 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Introduction 205 5.2 Summary of Findings 205 5.3 Conclusion 208 5.4 Recommendations 211 5.4.1 Recommendations for the Co-operative Sector 211 5.4.2 Recommendations for Policy Makers/Co-operative regulators 212 5.4.3 Recommendations for Academia 213 5.5 Contributions to Knowledge 213 5.6 Directions for Further Research 214 REFERENCES 215 APPENDICES 231 12 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Indices of Housing Finance by the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria 32 Table 2.2: Summary of Literature Reviewed 116 Table 3.1: Reliability Test Results of Quantitative Instruments 148 Table 4.1: Survey Response Rates 157 Table 4.2: Co-operative Society Characteristics 158 Table 4.3: Co-operative Society Characteristics (II) 159 Table 4.4: Leaders’ Demographic Characteristics 159 Table 4.5: Members’ Socio-Demographic Characteristics 160 Table 4.6: Members’ home ownership characteristics and co-operative Financing 162 Table 4.7: Extent of Participation of employment and non-employment based co- operative societies in housing supply 163 Table 4.8 Co-operative Land Acquisition for Housing Purposes 164 Table 4.9 Housing units to be released from co-operative land holdings 165 Table 4.10: Results of t-tests and descriptive statistics for level of participation in housing activities by membership base of co-operative societies 166 Table 4.11: Sampling Adequacy Test 170 Table 4.12: Components Table 172 Table 4.13: Results of t-tests and Descriptive Statistics for Transaction Costs 177 Table 4.14: Results of t-tests and descriptive statistics for production costs by membership base of co-operative societies 179 Table 4.15: Results of t-tests and descriptive statistics for member involvement by co-operative leaders and members 180 13 Table 4.16: Results of t-tests and descriptive statistics for access to external support by membership base of co-operative societies 182 Table 4.17: Results of t-tests and descriptive statistics for level of satisfaction with co-operative loan services according to employment base 183 14 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Housing Development Value Chain. 15 Figure 2.2: Housing Suppliers in Nigeria. 32 Figure 2.3: FCH Co-operative housing in Egypt. 69 Figure 2.4: FNCoopHLM Co-operative housing in France. 70 Figure 2.5: Yesilkent Koop Cooperative Housing in Turkey . 77 Figure 2.6:Co-operative Villa, Badore. 111 Figure 2.7: Lekki County Estate by Total EP Co-operative. 113 Figure 2.8: Mobil Co-operative Estate, Lekki 115 Figure 2.9: Theoretical Framework for the Study 131 Figure 2.10: Conceptual Framework for the Study 133 Figure 3.1: Visual map for research strategy 141 Figure 4.1: Word cloud chart 168 Figure 4.2: Word tree diagram for the theme “Problems” 173 Figure 4.3: Categorization of Constraints experienced by co-operative societies 192 Figure 4.4: Action Plan for Integrating Co-operative Societies in Housing Supply in Lagos State 204 15 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CAHF= Centre for Affordable Housing Finance CAQDAS= Computer Aided Qualitative Data Analysis Software CBN= Central Bank of Nigeria CLT= Community Land Trusts CMHN= Chicago Mutual Housing Network CSI= Co-operators’ Satisfaction Index EFInA= Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access FGD= Focus Group Discussion FGN= Federal Government of Nigeria FMARD= Federal Ministry of Agriculture And Rural Development FMBN= Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria GDP= Gross Domestic Product GRA= Government Reserved Area HML= Habitations a loyer modere IDI= In-depth Interview IMF= International Monetary Fund IOF= Investment Oriented Firms LASCOFED= Lagos State Co-Operative Federation LEC= Limited Equity Co-Operatives LSDPC= Lagos State Development and Property Corporation MIF= Mortgage Indemnity Fund NBS= National Bureau of Statistics 16 NHF= National Housing Fund NIE= New Institutional Economic Models NTF= Neo-classical Theory of the Firm 17 ABSTRACT The severity of the housing supply deficit in Nigeria has necessitated the participation if co- operative societies in the housing sector. However, their activities have remained under- researched. The aim of this thesis is to establish the scope and constraints of co-operatives’ housing supply activities in order to develop a set of guidelines that would integrate them as functional housing suppliers in Lagos State. Objectives of the study are: one, to assess the current activities of co-operative societies in housing supply; two, to determine constraints to their participation; three, to examine differences in constraints experienced by employment based and non-employment based co-operatives and four, to examine success factors of co-operative societies that have successfully developed housing on their land. Objective five recommends an action plan for their effective participation in housing supply. The study adopts an explanatory, sequential QUAN-qual mixed method design that starts with a major, quantitative study, followed by a smaller scale qualitative study. For the quantitative phase, a survey based on systematic random sampling of co-operative leaders was carried out; a total of six hundred questionnaires were distributed with response rate of seventy five percent being achieved. For objectives one, two and three, analysis was done with descriptive and inferential statistics with the use of independent T-tests and multivariate techniques. For the qualitative aspect, a Focus Group Discussion was carried out and analysis done with a computer software. This was carried for objectives one, two and four. Integration of results was utilized to achieve objective five. Findings show that co-operative societies are most active in land acquisition activities but are constrained by eight categories of constraints such as production costs, pre-construction costs, issues in member involvement and lack of external support, amongst others. Findings also show that across the three activity areas (land, finance and housing construction); employment based co-operatives are more active in the housing supply process than non-employment based co- operatives. As contribution to knowledge, the study discovered seven crucial success factors for co-operative societies’ involvement in housing supply which have not been identified by previous researchers in this study area. These provide fresh policy directions for the sector. The study also generated a time-bound, integrative action-plan to release thousands of co-operative housing units in Lagos State. Keywords:Co-operative housing, co-operative societies, housing delivery, housing supply, housing supply constraints. 18 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background to the Study Affordable, decent housing is beyond mere assemblage of bricks and mortar (Ayeniyo, 2011; Nubi, 2015). Housing’s fundamental linkage to good health, well-being and economic development is evidenced in its inclusion in global and regional development agenda. It is both an investment and consumption good (Glaeser and Gyourko, 2017), being a major source of economic growth for countries such as China (Sun, Zheng and Geltner, 2017) and in countries such as Britain and America, constituting a major source of household wealth for over seventy percent of the households who own their homes (Gorea and Midrigan, 2017).However, it is very unlike other assets. While it is a great source of investment, its high capital requirements has resulted in itsbecoming a social needso that its attainment (or lack of)is often times a great sign of economic inequality in most societies (O’Dea, 2012). The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS (2013) indicates that Nigeria’s major urban centres (Lagos, Abuja, Ibadan and Kano) are experiencing an increase of 20% in housing demand per annum; and over 65% of Nigerians reside in substandard homes in several slum communities due to inability to afford decent homes (Centre for Affordable Housing Finance in Africa CAHF, 2015). These are indicators of both current and future quantitative and qualitative housing need. The Federal Government had historically adopted a direct construction strategy to address supply shortfalls but this has achieved minimum results in over 20 years that it was practiced (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2002;Nubi, 2012; Obialo, 2005). Subsequent attempts to pass on the responsibility for housing provision to the private sector has also met with less than significant 19 success, with low rates of mortgage uptake (Nubi, 2006; Okonjo-Iweala, 2014) and preference of developers to build for the middle-high income earners who can afford to pay market-rates and also qualify for mortgage loans (CAHF, 2015; Eni & Danson, 2014; Nubi, 2010). This has resulted into a situation where decent housing reaches only a minor segment of the population. In trying to meet their housing need in the face of the multi-faceted problems surrounding housing affordability and access, most households then rely on self-financing through own equity, loans and gifts from friends and family, remittances from abroad and contribution from co-operative societies. Co-operative societies, in particular, have long been utilized by households as a medium to address problems they are incapable of solving individually. From its origins by the Rochdale Society in the UK in 1844, co-operative membership has spread to other countries including Nigeria, which now has about 82,460 co-operative societies of various categories with over 1.4 million members in 605 local Governments (Enhancing Financial Innovation and Access EFInA, 2012). As obtains in other parts of the world, the co-operative societies operate in various categories. There are employment based co-operatives, which are domiciled in formal organizations and provide an avenue for employees to address their welfare issues. There are also various categories of non-employment societies (such as community based co-operatives, agriculture based co-operatives, artisanal co-operatives, gender based co-operatives and so on), all of which provide opportunities for people to assist one another outside the formal sector. Co- operative societies could therefore serve various purposes: production-based, consumer support, thrift and credit societies and so on, depending on the needs of its members. 20 Thus, given the rationale for setting up co-operative societies, the socio-economic importance of housing and its high capital outlay,there is a logical assumption that they should be involved in addressing the housing supply challenges in cities such as Lagos, which show visible housing need evidenced by large slum communities. This assumption is fuelled by the positive track- record of co-operative societies in achieving improved socio-economic outcomes for their members as evidenced in Aderounmu, Odeyemi & Adeleke (2014), EFInA, (2012), Ezekiel(2014) and Olaleye (2007). Indeed, the National Housing Policy of 2004 section 7.3(iv) and section 7.3(ix) placed on housing co-operatives, responsibility for direct construction, distribution of building materials and possibilities of accessing funds from the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (The Federal Government of Nigeria, 2002). In addition, academics and other stakeholders advocate for deeper co-operative societies’ involvement in the housing sector (Danmole, 2004; Ndubueze, 2009).However, despite these general optimism amongst key stakeholders that co-operative societies are veritable tools for increasing the nation’s housing stock, their current contribution to the nations’ housing stock remains insignificant (Ndubueze, 2009). Inevitably, while the literature on co-operative activities in agricultural and commercial activities is available, there is scant empirical research on the extent and depth of current activities of co- operatives in the housing sector. This is evidenced by the non-recognition and non- documentation of their activities in the 2012 global compendium of co-operatives involvement in housing and their non-visibility in the housing policy framework for Lagos State in the last few administrations. However, anecdotal views suggest their participation in land assembly- as seen from various billboards in the city peripherals that announce vast acres of undeveloped land as 21 being owned by one co-operative society or the other. However, it is not clear the motivation (social need, investment or speculative) for these acquisitions. The efforts of some co-operative societies at housing provision for members are also to be seen in housing estates developments, but it is also not clear, the depth of these activities across the entire co-operative sector (whether employment based or non-employment based) in Lagos State. The few studies on the activities of co-operatives in housing supply in Nigeria are also limited in some aspects, such that more research is needed in this area. For instance, Adeboyede and Oderinde (2013); Odum and Ibem (2011); Oyewole (2010) have studied the role of co-operative societies in housing finance and land assembly components of the housing development value chain in Ibadan, Ogbomoso, Oyo and Enugu. Also, in advocating for institutionalization of co- operatives societies in housing supply in Nigeria, other researchers such as Danmole (2004), Ndubueze (2009) and Nubi (2008) have provided descriptive appraisal of the co-operative system. In terms of methods, these studies have either adopted quantitative or qualitative approaches, and in terms of geographical scope, they have been directed towardsurban areas with less intense housing need than Lagos State. Thus, with the peculiarities of the state as the nation’s sole megacity which accounts for 31% of estimated national housing deficits (The World Bank, 2016) recommendations from such studies might not be applicable in their entirety to address the housing problems in the state. It is therefore important to provide focused research specific to this case study area. In addition, in terms of subject area scope, past studies have been limited to housing finance and land assembly components of the housing development value chain. Moreover, these studies have not 22 shown a detailed analysis of co-operatives and housing supply that is based on theoretical postulates. It is important to note that despite the differences in research design, while all these studies agree that, as recommended in the National Housing Policy, co-operative societies should have a more impactful role in housing supply in Nigeria, they have not provided a depth of data that would provide policy directions for the sector in Lagos State. This thesis therefore seeks to address these gaps by expanding the scope of research on co- operative societies and housing supply in Lagos State. This is to be done by utilizing a mixed method paradigm to provide a state-wide appraisal of the activities of co-operative societies along three key components of the housing supply value chain (land acquisition, finance and construction); thereby generating stylized facts on how they can be integrated as housing suppliers in Lagos State such that they can begin to fulfil their assigned role in the Nation’s housing policy. 1.2 Statement of the Research Problem The central research problem that this thesis addresses is that of the limited participation of co- operative societies in housing supply in Lagos State, the need to ascertain the causal factors that have produced this, while also determining strategies by which the co-operative structure could be utilized to address housing challenges. This problem requires research attention due to a number of reasons. For instance, the antecedents of co-operative societies in housing for rental and home-ownership in countries such as Pakistan, Poland, Sweden, Germany and Turkey indicate the critical role they play in the housing provision framework. These societies are also recognized as a pathway to achieving 23 housing supply and affordability goals in Wales; and in Egypt, Kenya, India and Malawi they have been supported by State agencies and international organizations to provide self-built housing for members and in supporting urban regeneration. In Nigeria, however, the situation appears not to be the same. Lagos, with a current population of 21million has the highest population in Africa and is expected to achieve a population of 28 million people by 2020. The deficiencies in the institutional capacity to cope with the associated housing need are already evident. Literature avers that the state has a housing supply deficit of 2 million units, in addition to 3 million housing units that need to be upgraded to decent standards in order to improve the lives of close to 70% of Lagosians who reside in several slums across the State (Lagos State Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget, 2013; Nubi 2015). It is acknowledged that attempts have been made to address these deficits as records of the housing construction activities of the state governments are available with its ministries and agencies, the efforts of both corporate and individual housing providers are quite visible, but the contribution of the co-operative sector in housing supply in the state remains undocumented. This is a problem that requires research attention. Another aspect of this problem is that while literature shows that although the number of registered co-operative societies in Lagos State rosefrom 1,040 in 2013 (Lawanson & Oyalowo, 2016) to 2,516 in 2015,only 14 are currently registered as housing co-operatives.However, other types of co-operatives are known to be involved in housing issues,for instance, employment based organizations and multi-purpose co-operative societies are also involved in housing provision for their members. However, probably because of the dearth of empirical study and 24 systematic data on the structure and workings of these activities, these efforts have not been given significant policy attention in the state. Without a composite approach to address these problems, the implication is that the current housing activities of co-operative societies in Lagos State will remain unrecognized, unstructured and unregulated, and the potential that the sector has for increasing the housing stock will not be realized. If this situation continues, the housing need of co-operative members who have probably joined co-operatives to satisfy capital intensive needs such as housing, would remain unmet and the potential contribution of co-operatives to reduce the housing deficit in Lagos (and indeed Nigeria) would remain untapped. Besides, an empirical investigation would permit the use of theory in understanding the behaviour of co-operatives in the highly market dominated housing sector, and how decision making processes in these societies affect the depth of participation of co-operative societies in housing provision activities. The current study therefore sets out to address the issues in the existing knowledge area about the activities of co-operatives in housing supply in Lagos State. 1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study The aim of this research is to assess the operations of co-operative societies and their housing provision activities in Lagos State, with a view to developing a set of guidelines that would integrate them as functional housing suppliers in Lagos State. Accordingly, the objectives of this thesis are to: 25 1. assess the current activities of both employment and non-employment based co-operative societies across three levels (land acquisition, finance and construction) of the housing supply value chain; 2. determine the constraints to co-operative societies’ participation in the housing supply process; 3. examine the differences in the level of constraints experienced by employment and non- employment based co-operative societies; 4. determine the success factors of co-operative societies that have successfully developed housingon their land; and 5. recommend an action plan for co-operative societies’ effective participation in housing delivery in Lagos State. 1.4 Research Questions The following are the research questions formulated to guide the study: 1. what are the current activities of both employment and non-employment based co- operative societies across three levels (land acquisition, finance and construction) of the housing supply value chain? 2. what are the constraints to co-operative societies’ participation in the housing supply process? 3. what are the differences in the level of constraints experienced by employment and non- employment based co-operative societies? 4. what are the success factors of co-operatives that have successfully developed housing on their land? 26 5. What action plan can be developed to enable effective participation of co-operatives in housing delivery in Lagos State? 1.5 Research Hypotheses In line with the mixed methods design adopted for this study, not all the research questions have corresponding hypothesis. The following null hypotheses for research objectives one and three were found relevant for this study: Ho1: there are no significant differences in the current activities of employment based and non- employment based co-operative societies across three levels (land acquisition, finance and construction) of the housing supply value chain. Objective 2: No hypothesis is required. Ho2 (Objective 3): there are no differences in the level of constraints experienced by employment and non-employment based co-operative societies. Within objective 3, the following sub-hypothesis was tested: Ho2a: there are no differences between employment and non-employment based co-operative societies with respect to transaction costs constraints. Ho2b: there are no differences between employment and non-employment based co-operative societies with respect to housing production constraints. Ho2c: there are no differences in the responses of co-operative leaders and co-operative members with respect to level of member involvement in land acquisition decision-making. Ho2d: there are no differences between employment based and non-employment based co- operatives with regards to external support. Ho2e: There are no differences in member satisfaction in co-operative loan management services across employment and non-employment based co-operatives. 27 Objectives 4: No hypothesis is required. Objectives 5: No hypothesis is required. 1.6 Significance of the Study The primary beneficiaries of this research are the over 1.4 million people who belong to co- operative societies all over Nigeria,co-operative managers and leaders, researchers, co-operative society regulatory agencies as well as policy makers and funding organizations. In research objective one, the study presents the scope of co-operative housing activities to provide a better understanding of their activities in the housing sector. The result of this is useful for all stakeholders because it will serve as a baseline upon which other decisions relating to areas of possible intervention can be addressed. Thereafter, in research objectives two and three, the peculiar problems that constrain co-operative housing activities are examined in depth using both qualitative and quantitative means, and results provide rich contextual knowledge on why and how these constraints have emerged and are inter-related. Taken with research objective four that provides a narrative discussion of housing sector success factors from the co-operatives themselves, this study provides a template for sharing best practices amongst co-operatives societies themselves and useful guidance for funding agencies seeking to strengthen the participation of co-operatives in the housing sector. The study utilizes the Transaction Cost theory to derive study variables, explain the behaviour of co-operatives in the face of housing market constraints and also utilizes the stakeholder and resource dependency theories to recommend actions necessary to improve performance of the sector. This is beneficial for researchers seeking theoretical basis in this study area. The study is 28 based ona pragmatic paradigm executed on a mixed method design. This permits the linking of quantitative and qualitative methods to better understand the phenomenon being studied. This study therefore provides a linkage between theoretical knowledge and practice resulting in a better focused methodology for co-operative societies’ participation in the housing sector. It is hoped that this will provoke further academic and policy-driven research in the problem area. The resulting action plan that this study proposes in realization of research objective five is a time-bound strategy that could be implemented immediately to propel housing construction activities by the co-operative sector and hence release thousands of housing units into the markets while also helping to integrate these societies as vibrant housing suppliers in the state. The study is therefore significant in three respects: contribution to knowledge, contribution to policy development and contribution to organizational development. 1.7 Scope of the Study In terms of scope in subject matter, this study is primarily focused on co-operative societies as potential housing suppliers for members. It is specific to the supply context. Demand-side variables of members such as income, housing preferences, and so on are analyzed only to the extent that they impact on supply decisions by the societies. This is because of the difficulty associated with the empirical identification of all factors affecting both the demand and supply of housing: some factors affect the demand side, while other factors affect the supply-side (Wong and Rickman, 2017). It is also limited to the activities of co-operative societies in the first three steps of the housing supply value chain. These are land acquisition, housing finance and housing construction. The 29 higher levels of the value chain (housing finance through the primary and secondary capital markets) are not sufficiently matured in the mainstream housing market and are therefore not considered in this study. In addition, while it is known that there are several types of co-operative societies in operation in Lagos, to facilitate conciseness, these have been aggregated to two: employment based and non-employment based co-operatives. Finally, in terms of geographical coverage, the study is limited to Lagos State. This is on account of the dearth of literature on the co-operative and housing sector in the state and also on account of the depth of the housing need and the significant number of co-operatives that are registered in the state, when compared to other urban centres or states in the country. 1.8 Operational Definition of Terms Co-operative Housing: Any form of intervention in housing supply by any type of co-operative societies, through direct construction for renting or sales, at market or subsidized rates, for the benefit of members and non-members alike. Co-operative Societies: These are entities that are set up by a group of people to collectively address issues relating to their welfare that require substantial and collective resource mobilization. Employment Based Co-operatives: Co-operatives whose membership is drawn exclusively from the staff base of a host organization; such as a company, government agency or other formal organization. Housing Co-operative: A co-operative society specifically set up only for the purpose of addressing the housing needs of its members, and in some cases, non-members as well. 30 Housing Supply Value Chain: This term is used synonymously with housing supply process, housing development value chain and housing development process. It relates to the stages inherent in the process of housing supply: land acquisition, financing, infrastructure development, construction and accessing the capital market for sustained growth. Housing Supply: This is the number of completed, decent housing units injected into the market by a housing provider, at any given point in time. It is used as a synonym to housing production. Governance variables: These are variables, such as member involvement that relate to the internal mechanism of leadership and followership in the co-operative society. Market Constraints: These are constraints, such as production costs, that are external to the co- operative society; being dictated by the macro-economic conditions in which co-operative societies operate. Non-employment based co-operatives: These are co-operatives that draw their membership base from trade groups or from the local community alone, but sometimes, in addition to the staff of a host organization. Transaction Costs: These are non-direct costs of production, associated with administrative expenses, the acquisition and purchase of inputs, obtaining regulatory permits, information seeking, arranging contracts and all such other costs that nonetheless affects total housing supply costs. 31 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction This literature review section begins with an overview of issues surrounding housing supply and thereafter, examines thoroughly the concept of co-operative societies as housing suppliers as the dependent variable. In carrying out the review, the study adopts elements of integrative literature review which summarizes key themes in the literature under study, and methodological review, which focuses on the methods and definitions associated with the independent and dependent variables. This is followed by a review of theoretical postulates that could impact on the study. From all of these, a theoretical framework is developed for the study. Thereafter, a conceptual framework is provided as a synthesis of the relationship between the variables, outcomes and theoretical underpinnings of the study. 2.2 Concepts in Housing Supply 2.2.1 The Housing Supply Value Chain The study of the dynamism of housing supply is important given the contribution the process itself is capable of making to the national economy. When housing is supplied in a total system that ensures forwards and backwards linkages, it creates a value chain which consists of inputs and outputs that come together to create industry sectors. It is suggested that the housing value chain produces linkages between over 250 ancillary industries (Rao and Apparao, 2012) and 50% of all tangible asset wealth held in housing (The World Bank, 2016). Thus, in agreement with Erguden (2001), this study proceeds on the position that housing should not be looked at as a problem area requiring major financial commitment, but as a means for promoting and mobilizing savings, expanding employment and as an economic activity capable of providing significant mult Nubi (2010) identified the housing development process in that found in other countries. The process consists of site selection, development appraisal, development research and design, arranging development finance, building contract/construction management and disposal of finished pro construction or regeneration of existing stock to bring them to decent standards. Ideally, it would be elements of both strategies. Whatever the case maybe, the end complete, decent homes designed for ownership or rental housing. Fig2.1: Housing Development Value Chain Source: Nubi(2010) As shown in figure2.1, land acquisition, entitlements, infrastructure development, vertical development, primary capital markets and processes for housing supply, each op industry works through chains of land acquisition processes to supply r 32 but as a means for promoting and mobilizing savings, expanding employment and as an of providing significant multiplier effects in the economy. the housing development process in Nigeria as being closely related to that found in other countries. The process consists of site selection, development appraisal, development research and design, arranging development finance, building contract/construction management and disposal of finished products. This process could be designed for new housing construction or regeneration of existing stock to bring them to decent standards. Ideally, it would be elements of both strategies. Whatever the case maybe, the end product of the value chain is e, decent homes designed for ownership or rental housing. Chain , land acquisition, entitlements, infrastructure development, vertical development, primary capital markets and secondary capital markets all represent market led s for housing supply, each operating within its own sub-industry. The land development industry works through chains of land acquisition processes to supply raw land (or developable but as a means for promoting and mobilizing savings, expanding employment and as an iplier effects in the economy. as being closely related to that found in other countries. The process consists of site selection, development appraisal, development research and design, arranging development finance, building contract/construction This process could be designed for new housing construction or regeneration of existing stock to bring them to decent standards. Ideally, it would product of the value chain is , land acquisition, entitlements, infrastructure development, vertical apital markets all represent market led industry. The land development aw land (or developable 33 land) to the housing market. It works in recognition of entitlements on lands, the restrictions to their use and government regulations to ensure that land is developed to prescribed densities. This process, termed horizontal development process is integral to the next stage, which is the vertical development stage. In the vertical development stage, the real estate management industry comes to fore, with infrastructure development processes, such as road construction, water provision, electricity supply, and so on being carried out, producing improved lots. Further vertical development processes see the construction of the desired structure, be it residential units, office complex or shopping arena, and other such forms of real estate. This process produces leasable real estate asset or real estate asset space for owner-occupation. In well advanced systems, these units, by way of their asset or mortgage value are turned over from their origin as primary constituents of the capital market to the secondary capital markets where their finances are securitized and traded on the stock exchange. This is achieved in the financial/capital asset management industry. It is noticeable that throughout the process, finance plays an integral role, providing avenues for the acquisition of all inputs in the value chain. A distinct character of all processes of the housing development value chain is that each stage is imbued with risks, opportunities and constraints which all interact to produce the unique character of the housing market. In reality, housing suppliers (whether government, non- government or private) all possess, though to varying degrees, the ability to marshal the various risks and elements of the housing supply value-chain to produce housing whether in single units or hundreds of units as the case may be.This chapter thereafter proceeds to present an 34 understanding of how the housing market works to influence decision-making amongst suppliers in the housing market. 2.2.2 Housing Affordability as a Concept The concept of affordability has its origin in the Engel-Swab law that states that: “as household income rises, the portion which is spent on basic necessity such as housing decreases” (Bentzien, Rottke & Zietz, 2012). However, its entry into academic discourse can be traced to the 19thcentury studies of household budget which was expressed as “one week’s pay for one month’s rent”(Hulchanski, 2005). Academics in the United Kingdom and United States have thereafter progressed with this discourse from the 1960s, although application to policy has been different in both countries (Duan, 2011). In providing a definition of the term, Bentzien et al (2012) noted that the social policy point of view of affordability addressed the concern of whether low income households will be left with sufficient resources to cover their non-housing needs, such as food and clothing. Further, Nuuter, Lui and Tupenaite (2014) argued that like the housing market itself, affordability is highly localized, so that in defining it, certain issues need to be addressed such as: the targeted households, the period for which affordability is assured and the standard of affordability. These issues are themselves subject to localized perceptions. Worthington (2012) defines “affordable housing as an “acceptable’ relationship between household income and expenditure on housing costs for housing market participantsespecially first and low-income home buyers.” Affordability therefore depends on the threshold above which the financial burden is considered unbearable and state support will be granted (Bentzien et al, 2012) and its determinants vary 35 from country to country. Indicators of housing affordability are however, generally accepted to be the house price to income ratio which is set as 25-30% of income. While this benchmark has been prominent in the literature and is generally adopted by policy makers (Glaeser and Gyourko, 2017), it has been described as the least sophisticated of all housing affordability measures as it does not take into cognizance that the 70% of income left after deducting the cost of housing may not produce an acceptable standard of living. Further, Glaeser and Gyourko (2017) argued that even though there are social merits to the 30% affordability threshold, it is defective from an economic perspective because it conflates poverty and income inequality issues with a malfunctioning of the supply of housing units. Nevertheless, it has been widely accepted by policy makers and subsequently applied to rent setting, mortgage lending conditions and the design of allowances (Camilleri, 2010; Glaeser and Gyourko, 2017). The housing expenditure to income ratio is an alternative housing affordability measure that takes account of the cost of borrowing for housing as well as house prices. A similar measure is the mortgage payment to household income ratio (UN National Association of Realtors, 2009). The US Department of Housing and Urban Development (2009) defined affordability as the conventional mortgage on the median values’ house sold; while Glaeser, Gyourko and Saks (2006) posited that affordability is measured as the house price relative to the fundamental costs of production. Their position is reiterated in Glaeser and Gyourko (2017). Housing affordability as a construct is therefore defined and measured in varying terms. However, its measurement is dependent on two factors: a country’s economic development and second, the on-going cost of housing related to household income. National economic 36 development affects macro-economic indices such as interest rates, subsidy rates, housing finance structure and indeed the level of maturity of the housing market. It also affects both demand and supply-side indices such as income levels, disposable incomes, propensity to save and so on. It also affects the on-going cost of housing to the home-owner, which is measured as the rent passing or the monthly mortgage payments. Housing affordability often generates much government intervention policies, especially in countries where home-ownership is a government policy (Phang, 2009),and its attainment as a citizen right is at the crux of the imperfection inherent in housing markets. This is examined in the next section. 2.2.3 The Concept of Housing Supply in an Imperfect Market The perfect market is defined as one where there are many buyers or sellers, with an homogeneous product, perfect knowledge of transactions in the market and the inability of one supplier to influence prices. In a perfect market, the price is acceptable to both the buyer and the seller. With each transaction increasing the volume of market information that is accessible to both buyers and sellers,the reaction to information within the shortest possible time creates states of temporary equilibria and disequilibria (Wong and Ho, 2017), making market adjustments possible in the short term. Conversely, the property market is remarkable in its level of imperfection (Ajayi, 1998). Anundsen and Jansen (2011) affirmed a generally known fact that housing markets are characterized bydecentralized trading, imperfect information, high transaction costs and inelastic supply due to a number of factors peculiar to the sector. Inherent features of the housing market 37 such as quality heterogeneity leads to delay in responses from both suppliers and households as they learn from the market trends and adjust their behaviour accordingly, a process that is quite lengthy (Wong and Ho, 2017) and subject to the vagaries of bounded rationality. In addition, the product of the housing market differs from financial assets, which typically have a fixed supply, whereas, housing supply is not fixed, ashousing suppliers can respond to changes in prices with new construction (Nathanson and Zwick, 2017). The question of affordability of housing as a social good in particular, cements it as a market that is prone to imperfections and hence government intervention. Elaborating, Worthington (2012) observes that macro-economic factors such as population growth, rate of household formation, availability of housing finance and so on, all influence housing affordability, but that since nearly all of these are slow to adjust and often requires substantial alteration to a nation’s economic, institutional, social, political and regulatory framework, government’s intervention is often required in the housing market. Therefore, it is often argued that government intervention is required to repair market failure that gives rise to inefficiencies in housing markets.Government intervention also arises as a result of the recognition of the important role urban property markets play in macro-economic growth and local fiscal revenue (Sun, Zheng, Geltner and Wang, 2017). It is often said that the result of this is thepromotionof broader economic performance by encouraging the release of land for productive use and thepromotion of equity and social considerations that link housing with the broader social outcomes that guides acceptable standards of housing. 38 OECD (2011) provided the various structures on which government intervention in the housing market could be based. These are through fiscal means such as taxes and subsidies; direct provision of social housing and rent allowances. Phang (2009) identifiedother forms of government intervention such as mortgage interest payments that are tax deductible, special treatment of capital gains from housing, tenant protection laws that negatively impact the value of investment properties, mass privatization, supply-side subsidies for state agencies mortgage interest subsidiaries, mandatory housing finance contributions, direct grants for housing purchase, property tax subsidies, planning laws, limitations as the supply of rental housing etc as some form of government intervention that has been produced as a consequence of imperfections in the housing markets. In some cases, restrictions can be placed on the supply, purchase and even demand of housing. Sun et al (2017) provided an evaluation of such restrictions in China, where the Chinese government owns urban land and plays the dominant role in controlling and managing housing supply, demand, and finance. This is achieved through regulations on land supply, access to credit, and the permission to purchase properties. For instance, the Chinese Government placed an anti-speculation policy in Beijing, known as the home purchase restrictions (HPR), which restricted home purchase to registered households and had the impact of dropping house prices by 17-24%. It however, had the unexpected impact of pushing newer households that did not have the requisite permits towards rental housing. In Post Second World War Germany, government intervention was needed to address the 4.5million housing deficits resulting from the War. This was achieved by the provision of fiscal 39 subsidies and monetary support to private sector housing developers and housing associations. Rent regulations were needed to keep prices affordable, and the revival of the co-operative movement was found to be integral to successful intervention in the housing market (Wijburg and Aalbers, 2017). On the other end of the continuum, governments often intervene in the housing markets as housing producers themselves, and often times create special conduits of suppliers for targeted households.For example, even with its being rated as “the freest economy in the world”, the Hong Kong government has been deeply involved in housing development as the primary supplier of its Home Ownership Scheme Housing policy as well as its public rental housing schemes(Wong and Ho, 2017). Thus, the housing supply market has been subject to much policy direction. Thus, the segmentation of the housing market and the quest for affordability by governments for specific households often result into the creation of special channels of suppliers in addition to the traditional profit-seeking suppliers. Ultimately, it is noticeable that the responses of these different categories of suppliers to government intervention and market processes impact critically on house prices, affordability and available housing stock. 2.2.4 Determinants of Housing Supply Decisions. While the literature on housing demand is quite voluminous, literatures directed towards understanding the supply-side is much scanty.Nathanson and Zwick (2017) provided a primer on the typical supplier behaivour, starting with the purchase of land at market prices in a competitive, though imperfect market, which is then converted into homes at constant resource 40 costs. Housing providers necessarily make forward looking decisions, since the supply of land is fixed and subject to geographic and regulatory constraints. Housing supply is therefore determined by the decision of landowners to invest in direct housing construction. In taking a decision to invest, they are conscious of their ownership of the development risks involved in the process of housing construction, constantly revising their expectations about the path of future land and house prices and also acting on the decision to develop a given parcel in the current time or at a later time. Owners of undeveloped land choose how much land to develop and hence intrinsically determine how many new houses that will be put in the market (Pacieorek, 2013). It has also been asserted that the decision to develop housing stems from the availability of incentives to so develop and absence of restrictions and delays in land assembly. Mayer and Somerville (2000) model new housing construction decisions as a function of changes in house prices, changes in the cost of capital and changes in construction costs. However, later studies have included land use regulation as another variable to consider. Like Mayer and Sommerville, FTI consulting (2012) linked housing supply and elasticity of response to changes in prices. They identify two underlying factors that influence the level of housing supply and elasticity of supply in most country settings. First,is the planning system which has the role of mediating land use activities in response to the fixed nature of land supply and the competitive uses to which land is to be put while also determining the level and the rate at which land is released for development. The planning system also affects housing supply in three ways: by regulating the amount of land that is made 41 available in a given period of time, the length of time it takes for land to be released or approved for construction and the uncertainty of obtaining planning permission. It might be argued that these occur in well-regulated systems where planning systems are faithfully enforced. However, it is argued that the planning system in developing countries also brings about negative externalities in housing supply where they are not efficiently applied resulting in costly delays in the housing supply systems. Here, housing suppliers react by simply not adhering to planning regulations, thereby increasing the incidence of informal settlements and substandard housing. The second underlying factor is the long lead times in the construction of housing, which can be understood as the period between project inception and the final stages of supplying a decent home. Delays in construction times are specific features of the housing supply industry itself, and issues arise from the specific details relating to the time taken for financing, land assembly, site identification and a construction process that is imbued with various delay-prone elements. All these lead to a large gap between when land is released and its rate of take-up for housing projects. It also acts to increase the risk elements in housing supply for even developed countries with advanced housing markets. These risk factors affect housing supply, so their impact on the largely informal housing suppliers operating in the housing markets of developing countries need to be measured empirically. In developing countries, housing supply decision making is constrained by absent or ill-defined strategic housing supply system, or inefficiencies in the system. This is manifested in lack of access to housing supply inputs such as land, building materials and credit facilities and has resulted in the proliferation of informal settlements (Erguden, 2001).Conversely, efficient 42 housing systemsreduce the inelasticity of housing supply by providing suppliers with strong opportunities for accumulating capital for housing construction. In this system, housing suppliers are also able to accumulate and direct technical expertise of their preferred approaches in land acquisition, planning and financing in such a way that they can increase their housing supply output within their preferred profit margins. Thus, where housing supply operate in a well- defined system that permits all categories of housing suppliers to access inputs, develop expertise and establish returns (which may be pecuniary or non-pecuniary), it is probable that this results in effective housing delivery for various income categories in the city. 2.2.5 Housing Supply Elasticity, Housing Suppliers and Affordability Kemeny et al (2002) argued against mainstream economic literature which predicts that developers analyze market opportunities and maximize their profits inter-temporally and this influences their decision to construct housing units. This approach predicts that when there is sufficient demand for new developments and they expect to earn an adequate return on their investment, housing developers purchase land and other resources needed to produce housing and put them on the market, so that an equilibrium is achieved in the short term. The position of Kemeny et al is that several factors could cause inelasticity of this response to demand, which could create long term disequilibrium. However, the disequilibria vanish when developers are able to adjust their supply to suit the discrepancies between observed market conditions and actual production. They argued that where the share of developers that initiate projects on basis of markets analysis is small, thenit is unlikely that house-building can be explained or predicted with standards economic models of supply and demand. For instance, according to FTI Consulting (2012), up to the year 2006, firms developing more than 2000 units 43 have contributed to about 50% of the total new housing development in the United Kingdom,whereas, firms producing between one to ten units have contributed to less than 10% of new housing. This signifies that large firms possess the economics of scale that help them to dominate the housing supply market in the country. However, it is agreed that the imperfection of the housing market is underscored by its inelasticity to house prices, and hence housing affordability, which in itself creates the need for government intervention and hence more imperfection in the market. Extensive research into new built housing shows that the price elasticity of housing supply refers to the degree of responsiveness of housing supply to changes in price. The supply of housing is generally inelastic in the short run, as housing suppliers speculate on how long price increases could be sustained that could sufficiently cushion the risk of housing production without eroding returns. It only becomes more elastic in the long run as suppliers adjust their production mechanism to price changes. Researcherssuch as Gyouko and Molloy (2014), Glaeser andWard (2009) and Paciorek (2013) have shown that the response rates are sluggish. Establishing the consequence of this, Worthington(2012) observed that strong housing demand but with limited and slow-to-react housing supply are the most obvious and cited reason for increase in house prices and deterioration in housing affordability, which necessitates government intervention. This occurs in a number of ways. Government regulations influence the quality, quantity and pricing of housing. For any group of housing suppliers, delivery can be constrained by both policy and non-policy induced factors such as physical limitations on land for development and degree of urbanization. Similarly, in 44 establishing the land market impact of housing supply, it is feasible that where availability of suitable land is limited, it might be possible to increase supply by increasing densities. However, this is not often permissible by specific government regulations which limit the use of land in certain ways, adding extra costs to the construction project, and consequently limiting supply. Current research has also provided evidence that housing supply is reduced where there are strict land use regulations that increase the cost of housing production and hence house prices (Mayer and Somerville, 2000; Monkkonnen and Ronconi, 2013). In fact, literatures in the US hypothesize that cities with more stringent land-use regulations have lower housing supply elasticity and hence higher housing and land prices (Monkkonnen and Ronconi, 2013). Higher demand for housing would lead to increased pricing in areas that are constrained by governmental or geographical restrictions to supply more housing. However, in areas that are not so constrained, construction activities increase. Monkkonnen and Ronconi(2013) further noted that price increases could lead to housing suppliers’ expectations of future price increases; and when this occurs alongside a relaxation of credit constraints, demand could also increase, therefore forcing more production in unconstrained or loosely regulated markets. This is so for developed countries as confirmed by Vermeulen and Hilber (2014) for Britain and Gyourko and Molloy (2014) for America. In addition, Glaeser and Gyourko (2017) showed that when building is unrestricted by regulation or geography, housing supply curves seem relatively flat, so that production costs remain low. They also found that both geography and regulation severely restrict the ease of building in some parts of the US, which directly increase building costs by increasing time delays and reducing the amount of available land, and indirectly, by reducing the motivation for mass supply over unit builds. Hilber and Vermeulen (2014) went on to note that 45 lack of house-building activity has coupled with strong demand to lead to increased house prices, which have negative impact on access to housing by first time buyers. Contrarily, some researchers provide evidence that there could be exceptions to the negative effect of regulation on new housing construction starts; as it may actually lead to increased construction starts, at least in the short run. Mayer and Sommerville (2000) contend that regulatory delays may stimulate developers to acquire larger parcels of land and hence obtain “wholesale” development permits and hence start off construction; whereas, in cities where regulations are low to the extent, developers may not be motivated to acquire ‘wholesale’ development permits and so have lower number of plots to develop. In the same vein, Bjornland and Jacobsen(2010) suggest that house prices may also have a stimulating effect on housing construction and supply. Notwithstanding these exceptional cases, in the long run, studies in this area posit that the theoretical implications of regulatory delays are clearly the financial and time costs that reduce housing supply. 2.3 A Typology of Housing Suppliers in Nigeria Housing suppliers in Nigeria can be categorized mainly into two types: private sector suppliers and public sector suppliers. The latter is made up of government ministries, parastatals, agencies andgovernment corporate entities established by law, which have been given responsibility for housing provision through new construction or regeneration. These operate at both federal and state government levels. Private sector providers are recognized to be have been very active in the informal housing registered under the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Nigeria, REDAN. government corporate entities established by law such as the Federal operative societies occupy a grey area between being formal or informal suppliers. Figure 2.2 shows an adaptation of the supplier framework in Nigeria. The activities of these suppliers are elaborated in subsequent sections. Figure 2.2:Housing Suppliers in Nigeria. Source: Nubi, (,2010). 46 Private sector providers are recognized to be in three categories: first, individual suppliers who informal housing supply sector. Second, there are registered under the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Nigeria, REDAN. government corporate entities established by law such as the Federal Housing Authority operative societies occupy a grey area between being formal or informal suppliers. 2 shows an adaptation of the supplier framework in Nigeria. The activities of these suppliers are elaborated in subsequent sections. Suppliers in Nigeria. first, individual suppliers who there are corporate bodies registered under the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Nigeria, REDAN. Third, there are Housing Authority. Co- operative societies occupy a grey area between being formal or informal suppliers. 2 shows an adaptation of the supplier framework in Nigeria. The activities of these 47 2.3.1 Government Activities in Housing Supply in Nigeria The direct construction of housing has historically been the conduit through which the Nigerian Government supplied housing units for the populace, but this strategy achieved minimum results in over 20 years that it was practiced (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2002; Nubi, 2012; Obialo, 2005). Historically, in the pre-independence period, the Nigerian government had intervened in housing provision for expatriates in the country with direct construction of housing units in Government Reserved Areas (GRA). After independence, the Federal Government, in its Second National Development Plan of 1970-1974 embarked on direct housing construction for the general populace. A National Housing Scheme was established to supply 54,000 units in two years. Several institutions were also set up to facilitate the achievement of this target. For instance, the Nigerian Building Society was set up to provide mortgage loans for individual home construction and State Housing Corporations were set up to construct housing estates, carry out estate agency and management functions as well as fund mobilization from the general public. Unfortunately, targets were not achieved during this period. Similar targets set for direct housing construction during the Third National Development Planning period from 1975-1980 were also not met as the Federal Government was only able to achieve 19% (8,500) of the target set for Lagos, and 25% of its national target. Not surprisingly, subsequent efforts in the Fourth National Development planning period from 1981-1985 was also unsuccessful as the Federal Government was able to deliver only half of the 20,000 units targeted annually. Limited coverage, budget cutbacks, unrealistic standards and specifications 48 giving rise to escalating cost of construction, problems with land acquisition and lack of construction expertise were some of the problems that affected the achievement of these goals (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2002; Nubi, 2012;Obialo 2005).Thus, over a period of 19years (1975-1994) only 81,750 (42.70%) houses were delivered out of the 570,000 units proposed within that period representing less than 50% achievement over a considerable length of time. The Federal Housing Authority, Nigeria’s largest housing corporation has supplied only 30,000 units in over 34years of its existence (Nubi, 2010). With the adoption of a National Housing policy in 1991, the government decided to take a facilitator/enabler role; while passing the responsibility for low-income home construction to the private sector. This shift facilitated the establishment of several primary mortgage institutions wherein individuals could access mortgage funds for home ownership. However, the rate of uptake has been low (Okonjo-Iweala, 2014; Nubi, 2006). The Federal Mortgage Bank is Nigeria’s apex mortgage institution and is charged with implementing the National Housing Policy, which is a funding mechanism that accepts mandatory contributions from salaried employees earning above N3000 monthly at 2.5% of such salary. Annual interest rates of 2% are paid to contributors and they are entitled to apply for NHF-sponsored loans, with a maximum loan of 15million per subscriber. The scheme has achieved a penetration of only 1.5% with about 60,000 houses being built with its funds since origination. Table2.1shows the salient features of the policy as managed by FMBN. 49 Table 2.1: Indices of housing finance by the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria Item Remarks Subscription Salary earners of over N3000 Annual interest rates 2% Maximum loan obtainable N15m Down-payment 10%-30% of loan value No of subscribers 4m Amount available N2.4b/month Market Penetration 1.5% with 60,000 houses from 1995 date Source: Adapted fromCentre for Affordable Housing Finance (CAHF), 2015. p.157) Through the National Policy on Housing (2006), the Federal Government set a target of delivery of 1million housing units every year, to be actualized through land swap initiatives, affordable and mass housing schemes and accessible mortgage finance for low and middle income earners. There are currently partnership arrangements with real estate developers in various states, but the impact are yet to be felt in the face of the massive housing deficit. Like the Federal Government, successive governments in Lagos state have also attempted to tackle housing deficits by setting up several agencies; such as The Lagos State New Town Development Authority, The Lagos State Urban Renewal Board, the Ministry of Housing which constructed over 5,000 housing units in 10 years, and the Lagos State Development and Property Corporation (LSDPC), which constructed over 20,000 housing units in several housing schemes across the State. Despite these, according to NBS (2013) survey, as at 2009, 80% of households 50 in Lagos still live in a single room home; and the Lagos State Government (2014) estimates that 70% of its population resided in slums. According to the Lagos household survey (2011), about 72% of Lagos residents are paying as high as 50% of their monthly income on rents, while most of the existing accommodation is supplied by private landlords. The Lagos State Ministry of Housing and the Lagos Building and Investment Company (LBIC) commenced direct construction of houses and have supplied 7,850 units and peak annual rates for the private sector peaked in 2015 at 3,929units with offers for installment payments very common 2.3.2 Private Sector Provision of Housing in Nigeria: The private sector has consistently been providing over 90 per cent of the housing stock in Nigeria (FGN, 2002). Private sector provision takes place through two channels: the activities of individuals (often regarded as the informal sector) and provision by corporate real estate providers (often classified as the formal sector). 2.3.2.1 Informal Housing Sector The informal housing sector remains the single largest contributor to the housing stock in Nigeria, whether in terms of rental housing or owner occupied. The UN-Habitat (2014) estimates that between 70 and 90% of all new housing built in developing countries are to be found in the informal sector. Housing finance in this sector is sourced from personal savings, incremental construction and remittances from abroad, loans and gifts from family and friends, as well as 51 loans from their co-operative, thrift and credit societies. All these are methods of finance outside the formal mortgage market. In addition, the period of construction is inordinately long; recent studies suggest that low- income households build incrementally over a period of five to fifteen years. It is therefore not surprising that even though this sector is very important for low-income housing delivery in particular, it cannot meet up with supplying the Nation’s housing needs. The quality of build has also been a matter of concern to stakeholders, asin a bid to save costs, there are generally compromises on building design and specifications. In fact, it is very common for households to construct only a core unit of living space, move into it, and then continue the construction of the rest of the house over time. Sanitary spaces, cooking spaces and services such as water and electricity are generally given lesser priority. The process also involves the use of temporary construction materials, in the hope that this will be replaced with more permanent ones as time goes by. The harmonisation of the housing product as a component of the environment is therefore severely undermined, resulting in slum developments and its attendant socio-economic implications. This has also contributed to the shortfall in housing supply, as it does not allow for housing industrialization and the benefits accruable from scale of production (Nubi, 2008). 2.3.2.2 The Corporate Private Sector The failure of direct provision has led to the devolvement of the housing supply function from the government to the private sector, which is seen as a vehicle for promoting efficiency, accountability and effective project delivery. 52 The role and contribution of the corporate private sector was envisioned in the National Housing Policy (2004). These organizations were required to participate fully in housing delivery particularly in the area of compliance with the provisions of Employees Housing Scheme (Special Provisions) Act (Cap 107); they were encouraged to establish primary mortgage institutions or building societies, thrift and credit societies, etc. They were also to participate in the development of estates, and houses for sale or for rent, or shared ownership and co-operate either with Federal, State, Local Governments or any agency of Government in the provision of houses, and economic growth. The corporate private sector is therefore charged with provision of affordable housing for all categories of Nigerians, and was expected to achieve this through the establishment of the Real Estate Developers’ Association of Nigeria (REDAN) and the National Housing Fund in 1991. The National Housing Fund was designed to supply mortgage finance to Nigerians through Primary Mortgage Institutions. Implicit in this approach is the government’s assumption that the private sector is willing and ready to provide such funds and that mortgage finance is the most suitable route of housing finance for all income classes in the country. However, it is generally known that the mortgage industryis relevant to the housing finance only to the extent that the conditions necessary to stimulate industry growth are present. Two primary conditions are (i) the availability of mortgage-able housing stock with good legal title and (ii) highly developed home building industry with capacities for new construction and retrofitting of old stock (Nubi, 2010). Nubi (2010) further observed the situation in England, where housing 53 supply increased by 59% between 2000 and 2008; compared to the accomplishment of the Federal Housing Authority of construction of only 30,000 houses in over 34 years of existence. His research also showed that very few private developers can deliver up to 1000 units annually in Nigeria. Mortgage loans in Nigeria are therefore generally construction loans, secured with land titles and carrying enormous construction and credit risks. Other conditions for a sound mortgage industry include: the strength of the legal rights of lenders, commonly measured by the ability of lenders to foreclose on properties in the event of defaults. Foreclosures in Nigeria are rare as the law is generally on the side of the borrower, and even where possible, the market for uncompleted and abandoned houses is also very thin like the general property. The strength of the credit information system is a significant institutional factor affecting mortgage system of any country and as an extension, the interest of the formal sector in providing housing finance to all segments of the country. The documentation of borrowers’ income is necessary and should form the basis of objective assessment of capacity to repay loans. Similarly, an objective assessment of a borrower’s credit history assures increased capacities to take informed risks and hence the development of alternative finance products for various classes of lenders (IMF, 2008). Oyalowo & Nubi (2013) showed that lack of credit information systems is an important deterrent to the participation of formal financial institutions to mortgage lending in Nigeria and West Africa at large. They also identified several other criteria necessary for mortgage fund mobilization ranging from availability of information sharing institutions, to 54 adequate legal, tax and accounting framework, macro-economic stability, property registration systems, urban planning policies and depth of financial markets. Apart from these conditions, in several developing countries, it has been shown that mortgage lending does not work for the generality of the people; principally due to their engagement in informal employment, where they earn undocumented incomes and possess unverifiable credit histories. These are two crucial conditions (salaried income and credit history) for participation in formal housing finance market. 2.3.3 Housing Supply in Nigeria Nigeria’s main urban centres are Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt. About 47% of the country’s population reside in urban areas;although a significant proportion (80%) live in substandard housing supplied through informal channels.CAHF (2015) affirmed that, like most housing markets in Africa, the Nigerian housing market is characterised by high urbanization rates, a growing middle class and a shortage of housing supply, although compared to Indonesia (84%), Kenya (73%) and South Africa (56%), the country also has a low home-ownership rate of 25%. With an annual urbanization rate of 4.61%, Nigerian housing supply market works to produce the ranking of the country at 170 out of 178 countries in the World Bank’s Doing Business Reports of 2014/2015. Here, an average of 12 procedures is required to complete the registration of properties, in an average of 70 days, at a cost of 18.6% of average property values (World Bank, 2015), although the federal government is working on reducing transaction costs from 16% to 3% (CAHF, 2015). Whilst the Nigerian real estate sector is acknowledged to be the 6th largest sector in the economy (CAHF, 2015),housing stock is poor due to the cost minimization (rather than value maximization) orientation of the construction industry, which is inevitable in an environment characterized by constantly increasing costs of production. 55 It is widely accepted that Nigeria requires housing supply of close to 17 million units to bridge its housing deficits. It is also clear that at the prevailing economic conditions, this supply levels cannot be achieved in the short run, especially since a feasible long-term housing policy to guide the bridging of this gap has not been clearly enunciated by the current administration. All these point to the quantitative need for housing supply, with attention to new builds and regeneration of the old. Thus, with existing shortages and a rising population, the demand and need for housing in Nigeria will continue to significantly outstrip supply. The implication of this is that despite rising housing demand, and high house prices, the response of suppliers remains low. Suffice to note that supply should respond to effective demand rather than housing need, thus where significant proportion of those exhibiting housing need are in the ‘subprime’ category meaning that they cannot afford market priced housing, interest in supply by private developers may not be significant. This is because housing suppliers carefully consider household types and also target locations with the greatest likely future (effective) demand (FTI consulting, 2012). Nigerian suppliers are therefore drawn to the high end market, where they can appropriately price risks and charge market rates for their developments (CAHF, 2015). This calls for the entry of new supply pathways that can appropriately cater for this sector. 2.3.4 A Review of Literature on Constraints to Housing Supply Thissection is based on the review of four categories of studies on housing supply constraints. The first category are policy driven public domain papers on housing supply constraints, a 56 second category are studies that utilized econometrics in their analysis and most of them focused on the impact of regulation as a constraint to housing supply in developed countries. In the third category are literatures that have situated housing supply in developing country contexts and finally, there are studies that have tried to identify the housing supply problems in Nigeria. 2.3.4.1 Policy Papers on Housing Supply in Developed Countries. Publicly available policy papers by government agencies generally identify, then group constraints under various categories. They are based on descriptive accounts and review of past documents on the subject matter, and generally recommend actions for implementation. For instance, San Benito County (2006) identified the constraints of residential housing supply and grouped them into two categories: non-governmental and governmental constraints. Non- governmental constraints relate to the topographical structure of available land such as steep- slopes, watershed land, erosion hazard, significant habitat and fire hazards. Existence of floodplains and earthquake fault-lines are other topographical features that naturally constrain housing supply by reducing the amount of available developable land. Land costs are identified as one of the most significant non-governmental constraints to the supply of housing. Other constraints identified are construction costs which include the costs of building materials and transportation of materials and equipment. Financing of new housing and infrastructure capacity are also identified as non-governmental constraints. Government constraints, according to the Report, are land use controls that affect the cost of housing by limiting the density and type of use of land; extending the time required for approval 57 for a development thereby increasing the cost of financing. Also building codes, fees and site improvements can also increase the development costs which are then passed to home- purchasers. The fees that government charge to process and issue building permits all impact on housing supply. Similarly, the City of Beverly Hills White Paper on Housing Elements Update (2014-2021) categorized constraints to housing supply under three headings: market constraints, governmental constraints and third, environmental and infrastructural constraints. Here, market constraints are identified as non-governmental, market forces that may hinder the development, improvement and maintenance of housing. They act to constrain production of various housing forms, thus having a negative effect on the availability and affordability of housing. By their categorization as a market factor, these are not within the direct control of the state, although the government could intervene to mitigate negative impacts on policy targets. Indicators of market constraints are construction costs, under which details of the construction mechanism such as custom versus tract development, choice of materials, site condition, finishing details, amenities, structural configuration and square footage, all of which can influence the total construction costs. The cost of building materials is a key component of construction costs. The cost and availability of land relates to the cost of raw land, site improvements, and all costs associated with obtaining government approval, all of which generally account for 2% of the total housing production costs. Very high land costs may make housing development infeasible unless expected rents or sales prices are high enough as to make it profitable. The cost and availability of financing infrastructure is also considered in the construction element of housing supply. 58 The City of Beverly Hills White Paper on Housing Elements Update (2014-2021) also addressed governmental constraints in the area of land-use and development regulations through the use of zoning, development approval and process; environmental review process, building codes and enforcement as well as fees. There are also on and off site improvements which require site investigation to cover the range of water, sewer, circulation and other infrastructure needed to support development. The Report documents environmental and infrastructural constraints that limit or affect the type and density of housing development. These include topography and flood areas, hazards and safety concerns, lack of sufficient infrastructure capacity. Environmental constraints are specifically seismic hazards, landslides and scope hazards, flooding hazards, urban and fire hazards. Infrastructural constraints include lack of access to infrastructure such as water facilities, sewer facilities, streets and sidewalks needed to maintain and develop new housing. A privately commissioned report on housing supply to inform policy in Britain by FTI consulting (2012) also links housing supply and elasticity of response to changes in prices. It identified underlying factors that influence the level of housing supply and elasticity of supply: the planning system and market structure. The market structure and conduct variable is an attempt to understand housing supply behavior in relation to the size of firms and opportunities they have to achieve economies of scale in housing production. The study maintains that the fixed supply of land, long delivery period, planning requirements make the housing sector a risky industry that also impacts on access to finance, and this affects smaller firms with lesser and smaller sophisticated financial management processes. The place of innovation and skills in making production more efficient, increasing potential supply is identified as a third factor and 59 innovation would be constrained in both output and input markets. Firm behaviour and management culture can also constrain innovation. Innovative methods require costly investment and building and planning regulations can act as constraints to innovativeness. Another policy paper by the UK’s Department for Cities and Local Government Research CLG (2010); found that land unavailability and high and growing regulatory burden were the two greatest concerns for house builders in the UK. Component of the regulatory burden are regulatory costs that have to be complied with, the costs of uncertainty due to regulatory decisions, planning requirements, building regulations, sustainability policies: all of these hamper efforts to increase supply. 2.3.4.2 Review of Literature of Studies Specific to Developed Countries These sets of studies are econometric studies that have been utilized on large datasets of housing transactions in various housing submarkets of the US and UK. One of these is the recent study of the economic implications of housing supply in the US byGlaeser and Gyourko (2017). The authors investigated whether market prices equalled the full social costs of producing the housing unit. They showed that a local housing market is functioning well if housing units are delivered at their minimum production costs, but the market is expensive if prices are above this cost, and where prices are below the production costs, they argue that it reflects an unexpected drop in the economic fortunes of an area, and is not the consequence of a failure in the housing market. However, arguments can be offered against this last proposition, because housing markets are inevitably tied to prevailing economic conditions. 60 As shown in previous sections of this thesis, the housing market has some innate characteristics that renders it imperfect. For instance, its heterogeneity dictates the presence of various sub- markets that influence the economic fortunes of local areas, and market failures are therefore inevitable. For instance, poor neighbourhood quality and predominance of foreclosed properties are often precursors to drops in property values and hence prices. Even though these might be temporary conditions, they are non-the-less indicators of the imperfect market. Further, a study by Anundsen and Heeboll (2015) showed that in most industrialized countries, national house prices have played a crucial role in transmitting shocks to the real economy; and sometimes; national house price cycles are often driven by developments in certain regional markets, and this is also conceivable for local and regional markets. In their study of the impact of sup